Arb 1 Estimate: $ 7,000,000

Reasoning - He is awfully close to Pete Alonso in career HRs, producing a similar career wRC+ as both Alonso and Guerrero Jr.. His platform year HRs are closer to Reyes and Torkelson. However, all of these players are 1B/DHs. Based on my projections (which maybe overshot his career a tad, which I can update later for the final assignment), there were no 3Bs comparable to him. Therefore, if we assume he can stick at 3rd, his defensive value will also enable him to produce more WAR, which is why I have him at 13.3 career WAR. He would likely fall between the 4 players mentioned, but he is so much closer to Vlad and Alonso, I’d say he’d get closer to their number than the other two. I debated multiple times what I thought he’d get - $6,500,000 was my first guess, but thought that seemed low. $ 6,800,000 was my second attempt. But after writing this out, I think he’s just too similar in value (and maybe even more so if he stays at third), so I decided on $ 7,000,000.

Arb 2 Estimate: $ 13,500,000 

Reasoning - Caminero’s year is quite similar to Vlad Guerrero Jr.’s second time through arbitration. Similar HR, Runs, RBIs, SB, OPB, and SLG. I’m hesitant to equal Vlad’s arb salary/raise, since Devers had a better season through almost every statistical category. It appears that Devers signed an extension to negate his first time through arbitration, which could hurt Caminero since the salary is only $11,200,000. And given that this is the only relatable 3B comp, this makes me think the final number wouldn’t be too much higher than this. Therefore, I went closer to Vlad, but couldn’t get all the way to Vlad’s $14,500,000 - ultimately settling at $13,500,000 for Caminero.

Arb 3 Estimate: $19,500,000

Reasoning - At this point in Caminero’s career, he seems to be pretty identical to Vlad and Devers. Heading into their 3rd year (Vlad was a Super 2), the HRs, RBI, AVG, OBP, and SLG are either the same or in the middle of these two players. Vlad had a slightly worse PY year for Arb 3 and Devers had a slightly better PY for Arb 3. Therefore, I don’t think Caminero gets the full bump to $19,900,000 ($5,400,000 raise) Vlad received. I also don’t think he’d quite get the raise Devers got ($6,300,000). So, a raise somewhere in the middle makes the most sense. I predicted a $6,000,000 raise from his Arb 2 number, which gives Caminero an Arb 3 salary of $19,500,000.